September's recap ended with a list of things to watch. Would Target keep its pre-dawn rhythm for 30th Celebration wave two? Would the $179.99 Ultra-Premium Collections get a first-party pre-order? Would Amazon ever alert at sticker? Which way would Walmart's drawing prices go? And when would Delta Reign show up at the big retailers?
Target kept the rhythm, but moved it to Fridays. The Ultra-Premium pre-orders opened at Target, at list, at 3:16 a.m. Amazon alerted at sticker exactly once. Walmart's drawing prices went both ways. Delta Reign pre-orders opened at Target on the same morning as the Ultra-Premiums.
This is October 1–31, 2026 through our own restock-alert data. The short version: October had more alerts than September and fewer of them at list price.
TL;DR:
- More alerts, mostly not at MSRP. We logged 130 retailer in-stock alerts, up from 83 in September. But 79 of them were third-party sellers on Walmart.com, at a median 37% over MSRP. Target and Amazon together fell from 76 to 51.
- Target was the only retailer selling at list all month. 42 alerts across 20 products, every one first-party at MSRP, and every one between 3:05 and 6:21 a.m. ET. 32 of the 42 were on Fridays.
- Friday October 9 was the month's pre-order morning. In two hours Target opened pre-orders for both $179.99 30th Celebration Ultra-Premium Collections, the Ditto Premium Collection, the Mew and Mewtwo Figure Collections, and three Delta Reign products, all at list price.
- Amazon alerted at sticker for the first time in three months. The Prismatic Evolutions Elite Trainer Box at $49.99, sold by Amazon, on Monday October 26 at 5:09 p.m. ET. About twenty minutes later it was resellers only. The other eight Amazon alerts ran from 20% to 78% over list.
- Walmart sold its own stock only through drawings. Six one-hour drawings, priced from 12% under to 59% over list. We did not record a single first-party Walmart in-stock alert outside of them.
- Best Buy: no open in-stock moment for the fourth month running. Just five "request an invite" events.
One sentence: in October the sticker price lived at Target on Friday mornings, and almost everywhere else cost more.
What we're measuring (honestly)
The window is October 1–31, 2026, in US Eastern time. Three data sources, ranked by how much they actually tell you:
- Real in-stock alerts. A tracked product flips from out-of-stock to buyable and we fire a notification. 130 retailer in-stock alerts in October. This is the number that reflects buyable inventory.
- Community drop signals. Drop-relevant posts surfaced from public social feeds. 454 signals. Good for knowing when something is happening; not a substitute for confirmed inventory.
- Reader taps. Where subscribers actually tap, counted once per reader per alert. 527.
Three method notes carry over from September, and one is new.
First-party pricing. Target is first-party: we track its MSRP for every SKU but don't stamp a per-alert observed price, because its listing routinely omits the price at the exact moment an item comes back. A Target in-stock alert is an MSRP buy, and we report it as "MSRP (first-party)." Third-party Target Plus listings are excluded.
Median of product medians, not of lines. Walmart's marketplace Booster Bundles alerted 27 times between them. Counting lines would let a handful of listings set Walmart's number for the whole month. Counting products measures the retailer.
Reader taps are counted once per reader per alert, so a few very active readers re-tapping one link can't outweigh everyone else.
New: Walmart's third-party sellers get their own line. Walmart.com lets outside sellers list on the same product page Walmart uses. Every Walmart in-stock alert we sent in October named the seller and the price, and every one of them was a third-party seller. We report those offers separately from Walmart's own drawings, because a marketplace listing at 37% over list and a Walmart drawing at list are not the same thing to a buyer.
The actual restocks: 130 alerts, by retailer
| Retailer | In-stock alerts | Share | Distinct products | Price posture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart.com (third-party sellers) | 79 | 61% | 15 | median +37% |
| Target | 42 | 32% | 20 | MSRP (first-party) |
| Amazon | 9 | 7% | 6 | one at sticker, the rest +20% to +78% |
| Best Buy | 0 | 0% | 0 | invite-only events only |
The headline number went up and the month got harder for anyone shopping at list price. Take the Walmart marketplace offers out and October had 51 alerts at Target and Amazon, against 76 in September. Target went from 49 to 42 and Amazon from 27 to 9.
The chatter went the other way from September, too: 454 drop signals, down from 520. 252 of them, 56%, were about 30th Celebration, close to September's 53%. Delta Reign, which streets November 6, drew 36.
The single busiest day of chatter was Friday October 9, with 82 signals, 18% of the month on one day. That was the pre-order morning at Target. After it came Wednesday October 21 (34), Thursday October 15 (32) and Friday October 16 (32). Fridays as a whole drew 169 signals, more than any other day of the week.
Target: Fridays, before sunrise
All 42 of Target's October alerts were first-party at MSRP. The clock tightened from September, when a quarter of Target's alerts landed outside the pre-dawn window:
| Time (ET) | Target alerts |
|---|---|
| 3–4 a.m. | 20 |
| 4–5 a.m. | 15 |
| 5–6 a.m. | 6 |
| 6–7 a.m. | 1 |
| Any other hour | 0 |
Every one of the 42 landed between 3:05 and 6:21 a.m. Eastern. The days moved, though. In September Wednesdays led, 23 alerts to Fridays' 14. In October:
| Morning (ET) | Target alerts |
|---|---|
| Thu Oct 1 | 2 |
| Fri Oct 2 | 5 |
| Fri Oct 9 | 15 |
| Fri Oct 16 | 8 |
| Fri Oct 23 | 4 |
| Wed Oct 28 | 8 |
Four Friday mornings produced 32 of the 42. The fifth Friday, October 30, had none. Wednesday produced one busy morning, October 28, and nothing on the other three.
Friday October 9: the pre-order morning
This was Target's busiest morning of the month: 15 alerts between 3:05 and 6:21 a.m., nine of them pre-orders, all at list price.
| Time (ET) | What opened |
|---|---|
| 3:05 a.m. | 30th Celebration Ditto Premium Collection (pre-order) |
| 3:16 and 3:27 a.m. | 30th Celebration Ultra-Premium Collection, Day (pre-order) |
| 3:33 a.m. | 30th Celebration Ultra-Premium Collection, Night (pre-order) |
| 3:52 and 4:09 a.m. | 30th Celebration Mew, then Mewtwo, Figure Collections (pre-order) |
| 4:24–5:09 a.m. | Delta Reign Elite Trainer Box, Booster Bundle and 3-pack blister (pre-order) |
| 5:13–6:21 a.m. | 30th Celebration Mini Tin, Elite Trainer Box (twice), Booster Bundle, Sylveon ex Box and Poster Collection back in stock |
The Ultra-Premium Collections are the most expensive item in the set and the easiest to flip. Target took pre-orders at $179.99. Ten days later Amazon's pre-order for the same box was $303.75, and the day after that, $319.99. More on that below.
30th Celebration kept coming back
30th Celebration was 32 of Target's 42 alerts, across 13 products. Wave two's street morning, Friday October 2, put the Booster Bundle out at 3:12 and 3:19 a.m., the Mini Tins at 3:46 and the Knock Out Collection at 3:57. The Booster Bundle and the Mini Tins then alerted five times each over the month, and the Elite Trainer Box came back on four separate mornings: October 1, 9, 16 and 28.
The older sets still turned up at list too: the Pitch Black and Chaos Rising Booster Bundles, the First Partner Illustration Collection Series 3 (three times) and the Ascended Heroes Mega Emboar ex Tin (twice).
Tactical takeaway: if you can only watch one retailer, watch Target on Friday mornings between 3 and 6 a.m. Eastern. In October that window held every first-party MSRP alert we sent.
Amazon: one at sticker, finally
Our last two recaps asked whether Amazon would ever alert at its list price. On Monday October 26 at 5:09 p.m. ET it did: the Prismatic Evolutions Elite Trainer Box at $49.99, sold by Amazon. About twenty minutes later the listing was back to resellers only, at around $90.
That is one at-sticker alert out of 75 priced Amazon alerts across August, September and October. It is real, and it was brief.
Everything else Amazon alerted on in October was above list:
| Amazon product | Median over MSRP |
|---|---|
| 30th Celebration Ultra-Premium Collection | +78% |
| 30th Celebration Ditto Premium Collection | +69% |
| 30th Celebration Booster Bundle | +67% |
| Pitch Black Booster Bundle | +48% |
| Mega Moonlit Tin | +20% |
| Prismatic Evolutions Elite Trainer Box | at MSRP |
Six of the nine alerts were pre-orders carrying Amazon's Pre-order Price Guarantee, which charges you the lowest price Amazon offers between your order and the ship date. October showed the limit of that. The Ultra-Premium Collection pre-order went up, from $303.75 on October 19 to $319.99 on October 20. The guarantee protects you from a later drop, not from a bad starting price, and Target had the same box at $179.99 ten days earlier. The Ditto Premium Collection told the same story: $67.50 at Amazon, $39.99 at Target's pre-order. Our Amazon Pre-order Price Guarantee guide covers when it pays off.
Amazon also opened an invitation-request listing for the 30th Celebration Elite Trainer Box on Saturday October 24. As with Best Buy, an invite is a chance to be chosen, not a purchase.
The talk about Amazon cooled off sharply: 87 drop signals, down from 225 in September.
Tactical takeaway: keep treating an Amazon alert as a price check, because 74 of the last 75 were above list. But when one shows MSRP and "Sold by Amazon," move. October's lasted about twenty minutes. Our MSRP reference has every product's list price, so you can tell the difference at a glance.
Walmart: drawings for its own stock, the marketplace for the rest
Walmart changed shape in October. In September it put out seven in-stock alerts, some of them first-party. In October we did not record a single first-party Walmart in-stock alert. Walmart sold its own Pokemon stock through drawings and nothing else, and every in-stock listing we alerted on came from one of three third-party sellers on Walmart.com.
The marketplace: 79 alerts, median +37%
The first one arrived on October 8, and they built through the month. Here is what they looked like by product type:
| Product type | Alerts | Price range | Over MSRP (product median) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Display Boxes (Perfect Order, Pitch Black) | 8 | $164.99–$185.95 | +2%, +11% |
| Delta Reign Booster Display Box | 1 | $219.99 | +36% |
| Premium Collections (Mega Zygarde ex, Mega Greninja ex) | 11 | $49.95–$59.99 | +25%, +36% |
| Booster Bundles (Perfect Order, Pitch Black, Chaos Rising) | 27 | $36.85–$39.95 | +37% |
| First Partner Illustration Collections (Series 2, Series 3) | 17 | $24.99–$26.95 | +39%, +50% |
| Pitch Black 3-pack blister | 3 | $17.99–$19.95 | +43% |
| Elite Trainer Boxes (Pitch Black, Chaos Rising, Perfect Order) | 11 | $61.99–$74.95 | +46% to +47% |
Plus one 30th Celebration Tech Sticker Collection at $32.95, which we leave out of the medians.
Two things stand out. The booster display boxes were the closest thing to MSRP on Walmart.com all month: the Perfect Order display at $164.99 is 2% over its $161.64 list price. And the Delta Reign Booster Display Box was already listed at $219.99 on October 29, a week before the set's street date.
Unlike Walmart's own drops, these offers kept no clock. They landed on every day of the week, morning, afternoon and night, and Thursday was the busiest day with 18.
The drawings: six hours of Walmart stock
Walmart ran six Pokemon drawings in October. Five opened on a weekday at 5 p.m. ET: Wednesdays October 7, 14, 21 and 28, and Monday October 26. The sixth, Thursday October 8, opened at noon ET. Each stayed open for one hour.
| Drawing product | Price | MSRP equivalent | Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Partner Illustration Collection Series 3 (Oct 8) | $17.97 | $17.99 | at MSRP |
| 30th Celebration Knock Out Collection, 4 pack (Oct 14) | $34.98 | $39.96 | 12% under |
| 30th Celebration Knock Out Collection, 4 pack (Oct 21, 28) | $47.92 | $39.96 | +20% |
| 30th Celebration Booster Bundle 2-pack (Oct 8) | $64.00 | $53.88 | +19% |
| 30th Celebration Booster Bundle 2-pack (Oct 14, 21) | $79.94 | $53.88 | +48% |
| 30th Celebration Mini Tin display, 10 count (Oct 8) | $129.00 | $99.90 | +29% |
| Destined Rivals 3-pack blister 2-pack (Oct 14, 21) | $39.97 | $29.98 | +33% |
| 30th Celebration Elite Trainer Box (Oct 7) | $69.00 | $49.99 | +38% |
| Prismatic Evolutions Elite Trainer Box (Oct 7, 14, 28) | $69.00 | $49.99 | +38% |
| 30th Celebration ex Box 2-pack, Sylveon and Greninja (Oct 14, 21) | $69.94 | $43.98 | +59% |
The "MSRP equivalent" is the unit count multiplied by each item's list price. Walmart also drew a Prismatic Evolutions Booster Bundle 2-pack on October 26 at $79.94, or $39.97 per bundle.
So the answer to September's question is both ways. The Knock Out 4-pack was below list on October 14 and 20% over it a week later. The 30th Celebration Booster Bundle 2-pack went the other direction, from $64.00 on October 8 to $79.94 from October 14 on. The Prismatic Evolutions Elite Trainer Box was $69.00 every time, the same price Walmart charged for it in August and September. One more wrinkle: the October 8 drawing included a Pitch Black Elite Trainer Box at $61.99 offered by a marketplace seller, not by Walmart. Check the seller on a drawing entry too.
We wrote up how these drawings work in Walmart's Pokémon collectible drawings.
Tactical takeaway: on Walmart.com, read the "Sold by" line before anything else. In October that line said a third-party seller on every in-stock listing we alerted on. If you want Walmart's own price, the drawings at 5 p.m. ET are where it is, and you should divide each bundle's price by its unit count before you enter, because the same bundle changed price from one week to the next.
Best Buy, Pokemon Center and the wildcards
Best Buy: no open in-stock moment for the fourth straight month. What it did instead was five invite-only events: the Pitch Black Booster Box (36 packs) on three Fridays in a row, October 9, 16 and 23, and the Prismatic Evolutions Elite Trainer Box on Tuesday October 20 and Thursday October 29. If Best Buy is where you want to buy, the "request an invite" button is the only door it opened in October.
Pokemon Center opened its virtual queue twice that we confirmed: Thursday October 15 around 12:45 p.m. ET and Tuesday October 27 around 11:55 a.m. ET. It drew 45 drop signals, up from 33. As always, a queue is a chance at a checkout, not a checkout.
Macy's picked up 12 signals, mostly about the 30th Celebration Knock Out Collection and Booster Bundle. Costco cooled to 10, down from 16, and Sam's Club drew 4.
Where readers tapped
| Retailer | September | October |
|---|---|---|
| Walmart | 18% | 42% |
| Target | 39% | 32% |
| Amazon | 33% | 15% |
| Everyone else | 11% | 10% |
Share of reader taps, counted once per reader per alert.
Walmart jumped 24 points, which tracks with where the alerts were, marketplace offers and drawings together. Amazon lost more than half its share in a month it had a third as many alerts. Target is no longer where readers tap first, even though it is still where they could buy at list.
How to buy at MSRP: the short version
After going through every October in-stock alert:
- Watch Target on Friday mornings, 3 to 6 a.m. ET. Every one of its 42 October alerts landed between 3:05 and 6:21, and 32 of them were on Fridays.
- Take Target's pre-orders at list when they open. On October 9 it opened the $179.99 Ultra-Premium Collections, Delta Reign and four more 30th Celebration products before dawn. A pre-order at list is a locked copy without a race.
- On Walmart.com, read the seller first. Every in-stock listing we alerted on in October came from a third-party seller. The booster display boxes were close to list, and the Elite Trainer Boxes were about 46% over it.
- For Walmart's own price, enter the drawings. Check weekdays at 5 p.m. ET, and do the per-unit arithmetic every time.
- When an Amazon alert shows MSRP and "Sold by Amazon," move. It happened once in three months, and it lasted about twenty minutes.
- On Best Buy, request the invite. It was the only way in all October.
The hard part of October was not finding Pokemon. There were more alerts than in September. The hard part was finding it at list price, and that still meant Target, before sunrise.
What we're watching in November
- Delta Reign street day (November 6). Target took Delta Reign pre-orders on October 9. Does it put the set out on a Friday morning like the rest of October, and does Walmart sell any of it first-party, or only through drawings and the marketplace?
- The Ultra-Premium Collections ship. Target took pre-orders at $179.99, and Amazon's pre-order sat at $319.99. Does Amazon's price come down before ship date, and does Target restock the box after release?
- Was Amazon's at-sticker alert a one-off? One in 75 so far.
- Does Walmart's own stock come back outside drawings? October had none.
- Black Friday. Do any retailers put Pokemon TCG below list price, and do the marketplace prices on Walmart.com move with it?
If you want every one of these on your phone within seconds of a drop, including the ones that land at 3 a.m., that's what we built bujusjujus to do.
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Methodology: All numbers come from bujusjujus's own restock-alert telemetry over October 1–31, 2026 (US Eastern): 130 retailer in-stock alerts, 454 community drop signals and 527 reader taps (counted once per reader per alert), across 166 actively monitored Pokemon TCG SKUs. Target is a first-party retailer selling at MSRP (third-party Target Plus listings are excluded), so its in-stock events are treated as MSRP inventory rather than a captured per-event price. Amazon and Walmart marketplace figures are per-event observations aggregated to a median of product medians. Walmart drawing prices are as Walmart's drawing board displayed them; "MSRP equivalent" multiplies each item's list price by the unit count. Excluded: one Walmart alert on October 6 whose listing turned out not to be purchasable, and five Walmart alerts for the Ascended Heroes ex Box sent while the MSRP we had on file for it was wrong (corrected October 27). One Walmart marketplace listing with no MSRP on file is counted but left out of the medians. September comparisons use the same counting rules. Previous recap: The State of Buying Pokemon TCG at MSRP — September 2026. Set deep dive: Pokémon 30th Celebration: Where to Buy It at MSRP. Timing companion: When Do Pokemon TCG Drops Actually Happen?